现在又有一篇发表于JAMA Network Open的文章Excess All-Cause Mortality in China After Ending the Zero COVID Policy，得到的结论是：An estimated 1.87 million (95% CI, 0.71 million-4.43 million; 1.33 per 1000 population) excess deaths occurred among individuals 30 years and older in China during the first 2 months after the end of the zero COVID policy. Excess deaths predominantly occurred among older individuals and were observed across all provinces in mainland China except Tibet.
死亡数的估计是负二项分布 E(ln(Death)) = β0 + β1 Month + β2 COVID + β3 ZeroCovid + offset(ln(P))
百度指数的模型是 E(ln(BI i)) = β0 + β1 Day + β2 COVID + β3 ZeroCovid.
(BI[RRref] − 1)/(MR[RRref] − 1) = (BI[RRi] − 1)/(MR[RRi] − 1)估计出每个省份的死亡率增长MR，再根据中国政府公布的人口数据就得到超额死亡
However, our study has limitations. The reliance on obituary data for employees from 3 universities in Beijing and Heilongjiang could result in an overestimation of excess mortality because university employees were older than the general population, or alternatively, an underestimation because the employees had higher socioeconomic status. Such biases may be especially pronounced if patterns of representation of these variables among those with obituary data changed over time. Also, increases in BI searches may not have fully reflected mortality increases outside the reference region, leading to underestimations of excess mortality in other
regions. Further validation of our estimate will be crucial once alternative data sources (eg, population-based mortality data at the national or subnational level) become available. In particular, data delineated by levels of age, sex, and socioeconomic status would allow covariate adjustment for these important demographic variables.